I just watched by good friend Ron Baron of Baron Capital on CNBC, speaking from his conference at Lincoln Center ( where I am suppose to be at the moment.) He is a great equity manager but right now the bottoms up fundamentals are moving so quickly who the heck knows how to value anything? Isn’t that the real problem at the moment? I am going to listen to my equity coach ( Ron) at some point and put more money in the stock market but for now I am happy to sit on the sidelines. I am less concerned with missing a bottom then I am about having some basic understanding about how things are going to turn around. Have a great conference Ron and I am sorry I am not there with you. You know how to throw one heck of a party!
When you turn on your televisions today you are going to find that a meltdown has happened overnight in global equities. Trading in US equity futures has been suspended since stocks are down the limit. Market Indexes are now well below prior closes as the wave of selling of everything, everything, continues. In currencies that US dollar and YEN exploded versus almost everything else. Today might well be the capitulation day.
As an aside – I have been getting very thoughtful emails about the various gov’t programs that are being set up to rescue our financial markets. Here is a great write up by Orrick law firm about the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program.
Late Day Comments
OIL – One of the trades/investments I did today was by Oil through at ETF. I do not think that the producing nations will let oil settle at these price levels or if they can help it, go lower. Their economies are in deep do do and they need higher prices to help them get bailed out. They will cut production.
Canadian Dollar – I think the Canadian dollar is oversold and so are thier resource stocks. I am taking a hard look at trading my US dollars or Canadian and buying both oil and gas and gold stocks. I already have that, but doing more seems to make a lot of sense.
Equities – I think it is a good sign that the US Markets did not close down more today. I don’t know if we have reached the bottom as the market is now turning to earnings reports for guidance, and they will not be pretty, but today’s close gave me a little hope. ( well off the lows)
Currencies – The Yen moved as high as 91 today against the dollar before it swung back. We are seeing currency swings that are absolutely unprecedented. Intervention may be likely soon on the YEN and for that matter the US Dollar. I would think we will see some reversals next week.
Have a GREAT weekend.
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